Recently I read this article that affirm that the upcoming 3D technology will fail, even tough I can agree that the different 3D standard will not favor the adoption of this tech, I think that 3D eventually will be successful.
Well this depends on the "quality" of the implementation, if 3D will feel realistic and if the content will be worth enough (gaming will be the most important element in the future of 3D) the product will succeed.
Hi definition was just and "upgrade", all people I know own an HDReady or FullHD TV (those are the only tvs available in the shops today) but no one of the own yet a blue ray, this is because they don't feel that the upgrade will give to them a value worth the price.
3D is a completely different thing, its not just a sharper image, its a new "dimension", you will be able to see the depth of a scene, games will finally look realistic (doesn't matter how high the resolution is the games are still flat!).
The price and the compatibility issue will make it start really slow (it wouldn't be possible to share the shutter glasses of different brands, so to share the experience you should have to buy a lot of shutter-glasses) but in the end content availability and a shutter-glasses standard will bring 3D and blue ray in most homes.